Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Another week, another glut of news articles claiming mortgage rates are at all-time lows. While no one is intentionally trying to deceive you, the news is deceptive nonetheless. Why? Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey is at the heart of the issue. The survey is a mainstay of the mortgage industry and the news media. It's been around for decades and is really the only mortgage rate benchmark the industry has. Despite the apparent street cred, their numbers can be hopelessly inaccurate at times. There are two reasons for the inaccuracy. The first is the survey's methodology. Freddie publishes the survey on Thursday but sends out the questionnaire on Monday. While they accept responses through the middle of the day on Wednesday, most respondents reply when they receive the survey (on Monday...(read more)

10/23/2020 5:26:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries? Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October. At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move. MBS have been outperforming decisively during this time. That makes it easier for lenders to avoid raising rates nearly as quickly as the broader bond market suggests. But spreads are now at all-time "tights" (maximum MBS outperformance) thus increasing the risk that negative momentum in Treasuries will increasingly translate to MBS. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Markit PMI Composite 55.5 vs 54.3 prev Markit Manufacturing PMI 53.3 vs 53.4 f'cast Markit Services PMI 56...(read more)

10/23/2020 2:49:13 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The contribution made to household wealth by homeownership is underlined in ATTOM Data Solutions' third-quarter U.S. Home Sales Report . The company said that a typical homeowner who sold a home during the quarter had a gain of $85,000 . This was $10,000 more than that realized by sellers in the previous quarter and up from $66,000 in the third quarter of 2019. This typical home-sale profit represented a 38.6 percent return on investment (ROI) compared to the original purchase price. The typical ROI in the previous quarter was 37.5 percent and it was 33.7 percent a year ago. The report says that both the raw-profit and return-on-investment figures were the highest since the U.S. economy began recovering from the Great Recession in 2012. They represent a continued increase even as the Coronavirus...(read more)

10/23/2020 9:46:38 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The number of FHA and VA loans in forbearance rose slightly last week, however, the overall numbers of forborne loans fell nationally by 11,000. Black Knight's weekly survey of the COVID-19 mortgage forbearance measures found that, as of October 20, there were 2.98 million borrowers in active plans, 5.6 percent of the nation's 53 million active loans. About 5,000 loans were added to the number of loans in portfolios serviced for FHA and VA investors, bringing the total to 1.155 million loans or 9.5 percent of the total. Loans serviced for investors in GSE securities (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) declined by 14,000 to 1.09 million or 3.9 percent of those 28 million active mortgages. There was a 2,000-loan decrease in portfolio-held and private label securitized (PLS) loans to 729,000, 5.6 percent...(read more)

10/23/2020 9:34:42 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even though bonds have become increasingly commoditzed (think "buy to sell" as opposed to "buy and hold"), the buy and hold crowd still exists, and it still has an impact on trading levels. The relationship between Treasuries and MBS makes that clear. Simply put, MBS offer higher yields compared to Treasuries, but with effectively zero default risk (federally back-stopped Fannie/Freddie protect the investor from borrower default). Investors only need to worry about risks relating to how long any given MBS will last. If rates fall too quickly, MBS coupons can pay off too quickly as the underlying mortgages are refinanced...(read more)

10/23/2020 9:11:23 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Let me state for the record that I am not a robot, although I often seem to be asked to check a box on certain websites by… robots. This article , however, sure grabbed my attention, as it was supposedly written by a robot that learned to read from the internet . Does anyone see the madness in this besides science fiction writers from the 1950s? What isn’t madness is the FHA extending forbearance requests through year-end. In other FHA-related news, the U.S. Justice Department announced that San Diego’s Guild Mortgage , in the press recently for being IPO-bound, will pay $24.9 million to resolve allegations it knowingly caused violations of the False Claims Act . As much of conversations these days include conjecture about 2021, there are certainly many analysts who believe...(read more)

10/23/2020 8:49:03 AM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Thursdays are special days for mortgage rate aficionados--or they can be anyway. That's when the weekly mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac is released. The survey is a mainstay of the mortgage industry and the news media. It's been around the longest and is really the only mortgage rate benchmark the industry has. That's TERRIFYING considering how hopelessly inaccurate it can be at times. In Freddie's defense, they are upfront about their methodology, which is the biggest part of the problem . They send the survey out on Monday and then accept responses until Wednesday. Based on my research comparing actual rates with Freddie's survey over the years, a vast majority of the responses come in on Monday and Tuesday. As such, this weekly rate survey is better described as a "Monday mortgage...(read more)

10/22/2020 3:56:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October. At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move. Today was one of the handful of weaker days for Treasuries, yet MBS are down only 1 tick heading into the end of the day. They've been doing this a lot lately, and it makes it even easier for lenders to avoid raising rates nearly as quickly as the broader bond market suggests. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 787k vs 860k f'cast, 842k prev Existing Home Sales 6.54m vs 6.3m f'cast, 5.98m prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM Bonds opened slightly stronger in Asia and remained...(read more)

10/22/2020 2:53:24 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales rose again in September and are now blowing the doors off last year's numbers. The National Association of Realtors® says sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 9.4 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in September. After four straight months of increasing sales, the seasonally adjusted rate is now 20.9 percent higher than in September 2019. Single-family home sales rose 9.7 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.87 units and are now 21.8 percent higher than a year earlier. Existing condominiums and co-ops sold at annual rate of 670,000 units, increasing 6.3 percent and 13.6 percent from the two earlier periods. Analysts had expected sales to remain on a winning streak but...(read more)

10/22/2020 10:41:22 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The refinancing share of originations increased again in September, rising 2 points to 58 percent of all loans. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report for September shows the increase came almost inclusively in conventional loans where the refi share jumped 5 points to 66 percent. The refinancing share of VA loans rose 1 point to 20 percent while the FHA share was unchanged at 15 percent. The reciprocal share, 42 percent, of purchase mortgages is a significant drop from 50 percent in January, but Ellie Mae notes it is well above the May low of 35 percent of all closed loans. The increase in refinancing was undoubtably in response to a further decline in the 30-year note rate . The average for all loans was 3.00 percent, down from 3.09 percent in August. Ellie Mae said this rate was the lowest...(read more)

10/22/2020 10:13:46 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the bond market" for that matter, but as usual, we'll focus on 10yr yields even though this is an MBS site ( here's why ). In the bigger picture, yields are still in a very low, very narrow range with historically light volatility. Up until the end of September, we could even say that shorter time horizons were also boasting exceptionally low, narrow ranges. 0.62 - 0.72 was a prime example, and it was intact for nearly 2 months starting in early August. Over the past 3 weeks, however, yields have clearly been on a mission to move toward higher levels. After .72, it was a very easy call to name 0.79 the next ceiling on the...(read more)

10/22/2020 9:16:09 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Purchase mortgage originations are expected to hit a new record high of $1.54 trillion next year. That forecast, which would be an increase of 8.5 percent over the projected total in 2020, was made at the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) virtual 2020 Annual Convention and Expo by Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology; Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting; and Marina Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis. While purchase mortgages will gain ground, the three say that, after a nearly 80 percent jump in refinance activity this year, those originations are predicted to slow next year , decreasing by 46.3 percent to $946 billion. MBA expects that, with record-low mortgage rates driving borrower...(read more)

10/22/2020 8:16:24 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

40 million people have already cast their vote in the election is unprecedented. I can hardly wait to return to “precedented times,” “unprecedented” favored to win “Word of the Year” in 2020. Even the colors are unprecedented. When I was a kid, people would paint their room or house white. Maybe green, or a bold shade of beige. That’s all gone out the proverbial window as current house & room colors include Muslin, Foggy Morning, Rosy Peach, Beacon Hill Damask, Potters Clay, or Amazon Soil. And the “Color of the Year” award goes to… Aegean Teal ! (Go ahead and takes those gallons of Adriatic Teal to the dump, they’re passe.) It is more fun to talk about creative colors than the unprecedented debt being issued by countries...(read more)

10/22/2020 8:04:34 AM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates are appreciably higher than they were last week or indeed any time in past 4 weeks. That's surprising news to those laboring under misapprehensions created by widespread reports of "all-time low rates" from last week. As we discussed yesterday, those reports were based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac and the MBA, and there are reasons that they don't accurately reflect the day-to-day rate offerings you're actually likely to encounter from the average mortgage lender. This is infinitely more true for refinances due to the new adverse market fee (which only affects refis). To clear up some confusion that seems rather persistent, the new fee for refis has a deadline that applies to mortgage lenders "delivering" or "securitizing" their loans by December 1st. Lenders only control when...(read more)

10/21/2020 3:32:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green It's safe to say the bond market found its footing today, but that is only a reference to TODAY (not necessarily "finding footing" in the bigger picture). In terms of 10yr yields, overnight highs gave way to slightly lower highs in the morning and another small improvement in the afternoon. None of that was enough for bonds to turn positive on the day, but of the potential "bad days" we could have had, this is one of the better ones. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:50 AM Big selling overnight (i.e. higher yields), both out of the gate and in 2 other individual bursts (10:12pm and 12:26am ET). That brought yields up to .836%, but they've...(read more)

10/21/2020 3:25:08 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The most recent Fannie Mae's Lender Sentiment Survey focuses on the complexities of lending to the condominium market. The company stresses that this type of housing can play an important role in narrowing the supply gap for affordable housing options as well as providing an attractive alternative for homeowners seeking to downsize. However, since the great recession, there has been a significant shortage of both new and existing units for sale. Condos represent 8 to10 percent of the mortgage market but tend to exist primarily and thus play a larger role in many urban areas. They also present unique risks given the financial responsibility owners share for the operation and maintenance of the common areas and shared amenities. Lenders may also face increased time and costs due to the complexity...(read more)

10/21/2020 10:04:15 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says there was little change in mortgage application activity during the week ended October 16. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dipped 0.6 percent from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 1.0 percent unadjusted. Refinancing was also flat. The Refinance Index increased 0.2 percent from the previous week although activity remained well ahead of a year earlier, up 74 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.1 percent of total applications from 65.6 percent the previous week. Applications for home purchasing fell for the fourth straight week , and for the seasonally adjusted index it has consistently been a 2.0 percent weekly decline. The unadjusted index was also...(read more)

10/21/2020 9:53:41 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October: "It's never a bad idea to consider risks on the road ahead--especially when things start deteriorating at the beginning of the month. We often see a shift in momentum with a new month when the previous one was fairly consistent with a certain theme. September's theme was definitely consistent." We went on to discuss a small scale breakout of a consolidation pattern that occurred well inside the already super narrow .62-.72 range. At the time, we concluded that things would be getting more serious when the .72 ceiling gave way. 4 days later, it did. The entirety of the 10/5 - 10/9 week was spent bouncing at the 0.79% technical ceiling...(read more)

10/21/2020 8:40:31 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Want some guidance? “If you get a loan at a bank, you’ll be paying it back for 30 years. If you rob a bank, you’ll be out in 10 years. Follow me for more financial advice!” Plenty of MLOs will need financial advice, given their continued record production months and quarters. Ask anyone who had all their retirement money in the company they worked for, like WAMU, Nat City, Countrywide, or Lehman Brothers, about the benefits of diversification. There continues to be optimism in the residential lending community (not so much in the commercial lending arena as leases expire). The challenge for lenders now, as it appears the typical winter doldrums won’t occur this year given rates, is in staff hiring, training, motivation, and hiring. It is the opposite from a year...(read more)

10/21/2020 8:13:00 AM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It began last week. It was subtle--so subtle as to pass largely unnoticed. But the gentle drift toward slightly higher rates has taken bigger steps so far this week. As of this afternoon, the average lender is quoting the highest rates since late September! That's quite a realization when juxtaposed with last week's (misleading) headlines about "all-time lows." If the highest rates in nearly a month sound scary, don't freak out just yet. During that time, rates have held inside one of their narrowest ranges ever. By the time we consider how low rates are in the bigger picture there's actually never been a comparable example of "this low for this long." The lift-off hasn't proven to be too alarming just yet either. Many lenders are still quoting the same note rates today versus their recent...(read more)

10/20/2020 3:41:00 PM